|
Escenarios para las Elecciones Regionales 2012
| |
cargos a elegir |
escenario base |
escenario óptimo |
parlamentarias 2010 |
referendum 2009 |
gobernadores 2008 |
| estado |
tipo |
circuitos |
mapa |
cargos
circuito |
cargos
lista |
cargos
indígenas |
total
cargos |
estimado
oposición |
cargos
circuito |
cargos
lista |
cargos
indígenas |
total
cargos |
estimado
oposición |
cargos
circuito |
cargos
lista |
cargos
indígenas |
total
cargos |
electores
2010 |
oposición
2010 |
chavismo
2010 |
electores
2009 |
oposición
2009 |
chavismo
2009 |
electores
2008 |
oposición
2008 |
chavismo
2008 |
 |
 |
| ANZOATEGUI |
AZUL |
 |
 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
56,1 % |
11 |
2 |
1 |
14 |
61,1 % |
11 |
2 |
1 |
14 |
943.699 |
341.199 |
278.717 |
885.234 |
295.560 |
323.669 |
888.656 |
246.404 |
310.759 |
|
Cargando  |
|
| APURE |
GRIS |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
53,6 % |
4 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
58,6 % |
4 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
282.187 |
63.889 |
97.966 |
267.432 |
52.285 |
103.717 |
268.731 |
52.184 |
89.690 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| ARAGUA |
AZUL |
|
|
12 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
55,8 % |
11 |
2 |
0 |
13 |
60,8 % |
12 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
1.095.865 |
350.722 |
354.638 |
1.040.049 |
288.061 |
441.760 |
1.044.107 |
253.428 |
382.343 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| BARINAS |
GRIS |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
46,7 % |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
51,7 % |
4 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
482.388 |
133.723 |
172.643 |
448.360 |
116.462 |
176.887 |
452.050 |
143.051 |
147.830 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| BOLIVAR |
AZUL |
|
|
11 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
55,1 % |
10 |
2 |
1 |
13 |
60,1 % |
11 |
2 |
1 |
14 |
875.449 |
254.178 |
257.546 |
832.117 |
223.103 |
308.585 |
837.282 |
195.279 |
203.079 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| CARABOBO |
GRIS |
|
|
12 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
54,7 % |
11 |
2 |
0 |
13 |
59,7 % |
11 |
2 |
0 |
13 |
1.413.071 |
514.210 |
390.834 |
1.327.698 |
454.095 |
500.871 |
1.338.601 |
405.691 |
436.291 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| COJEDES |
ROJO |
|
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
44,8 % |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
49,8 % |
4 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
205.573 |
45.674 |
80.837 |
193.055 |
40.262 |
89.074 |
194.235 |
51.485 |
68.893 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| FALCON |
GRIS |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
51,9 % |
4 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
56,9 % |
6 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
587.396 |
173.212 |
189.769 |
563.468 |
165.061 |
205.822 |
565.604 |
159.365 |
200.674 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| GUARICO |
GRIS |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
45,4 % |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
50,4 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
456.171 |
117.631 |
164.281 |
433.442 |
96.621 |
178.535 |
434.478 |
128.781 |
146.333 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| LARA |
AZUL |
|
|
12 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
63,0 % |
12 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
68,0 % |
12 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
1.122.263 |
431.509 |
297.275 |
1.075.811 |
333.769 |
416.967 |
1.078.937 |
142.655 |
447.652 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| MERIDA |
GRIS |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
54,4 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
59,4 % |
7 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
547.482 |
188.148 |
178.638 |
520.734 |
186.342 |
182.193 |
526.413 |
156.462 |
195.551 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| MIRANDA |
GRIS |
|
|
12 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
54,1 % |
12 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
59,1 % |
12 |
2 |
0 |
14 |
1.874.134 |
708.389 |
501.468 |
1.749.273 |
651.084 |
587.424 |
1.781.361 |
582.203 |
506.594 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| MONAGAS |
AZUL |
|
|
6 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
58,2 % |
6 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
63,2 % |
6 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
540.523 |
136.430 |
194.118 |
512.067 |
127.529 |
224.969 |
513.067 |
87.938 |
204.704 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| NUEVA ESPARTA |
GRIS |
|
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
49,9 % |
3 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
54,9 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
304.833 |
114.048 |
78.656 |
285.010 |
97.649 |
94.712 |
288.140 |
109.876 |
81.601 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| PORTUGUESA |
GRIS |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
46,9 % |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
51,9 % |
6 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
526.357 |
120.259 |
205.699 |
500.461 |
96.850 |
250.038 |
503.821 |
125.562 |
175.746 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| SUCRE |
GRIS |
|
|
6 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
49,5 % |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
54,5 % |
3 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
588.272 |
161.247 |
170.541 |
563.154 |
110.829 |
239.523 |
564.419 |
149.479 |
204.402 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| TACHIRA |
AZUL |
|
|
8 |
3 |
0 |
11 |
55,2 % |
8 |
2 |
0 |
10 |
60,2 % |
8 |
2 |
0 |
10 |
769.866 |
297.660 |
216.393 |
714.754 |
293.537 |
218.220 |
731.866 |
237.861 |
233.588 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| TRUJILLO |
AZUL |
|
|
7 |
2 |
0 |
9 |
56,9 % |
7 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
61,9 % |
7 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
461.436 |
104.208 |
175.116 |
441.981 |
97.636 |
202.791 |
444.651 |
73.501 |
170.770 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| YARACUY |
GRIS |
|
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
54,6 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
59,6 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
378.267 |
109.917 |
131.982 |
357.490 |
98.095 |
146.787 |
358.980 |
87.485 |
130.659 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| ZULIA |
GRIS |
|
|
11 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
51,9 % |
7 |
2 |
1 |
10 |
56,9 % |
11 |
2 |
1 |
14 |
2.242.474 |
838.731 |
670.974 |
2.093.235 |
769.742 |
690.753 |
2.141.055 |
763.762 |
650.951 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| AMAZONAS |
AZUL |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
66,3 % |
4 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
71,3 % |
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
88.893 |
33.014 |
23.934 |
80.427 |
13.404 |
34.837 |
80.943 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| DELTA AMACURO |
AZUL |
|
|
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
67,3 % |
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
72,3 % |
4 |
2 |
1 |
7 |
106.314 |
20.284 |
51.013 |
102.530 |
18.450 |
51.890 |
102.893 |
1.370 |
36.880 |
|
| Cargando |
|
| VARGAS |
AZUL |
|
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
58,5 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
63,5 % |
5 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
252.804 |
69.418 |
84.241 |
239.457 |
64.514 |
96.169 |
241.405 |
43.767 |
85.834 |
|
| Cargando |
|